The 100-Day Recap Nobody Wanted: 3 New Fires Trump Couldn't Predict

The Supreme Court may answer that question within 60 days — not directly about Jerome Powell, but through a related case about whether Trump can remove heads of independent agencies without cause.

The legal principle is the same.

If the Court rules in Trump's favor, **it would fundamentally redraw the line between the executive branch and independent institutions** — institutions that control interest rates, regulate Wall Street, and oversee the money supply.

If it rules against him, it reinforces limits on presidential authority that have existed for nearly a century.

Either way, the financial markets are watching this one closely. Interest rate expectations, mortgage rates, the value of the dollar — all of it hangs, in part, on the perception of Fed independence.

And hovering over all of it: Ukraine.

Ceasefire talks that Trump personally invested in — a major foreign policy priority he promised to resolve in 24 hours during the campaign — have stalled again.

Russia is not moving. Ukraine is not moving. And Trump's envoy, Steve Witkoff, is running out of easy diplomatic levers to pull.

**The political cost of a failed peace push** is hard to quantify, but it's real. Trump's base expected a deal. NATO allies are watching to see if American credibility holds. And Zelensky is walking a tightrope between appearing cooperative and surrendering too much.

Here's the through-line on all of this.

Day 100 is a milestone. But it's also a deadline — the moment when the opening sprint of a presidency gives way to the grinding work of actually delivering.

Trump enters the next phase of his term with **a stalled bill, an expiring truce, a looming legal reckoning, and no trade deals signed.**

That's not a verdict on his presidency. It's just the scoreboard as of tonight.

The next 30 days will tell you a lot more about which of these fires gets put out — and which ones spread.

Trump's Own Party Is the Reason the 'Big Beautiful Bill' Might Die

Here's the twist nobody in Democratic leadership wants to admit: they may not need to lift a finger to stop Trump's biggest domestic priority. **Republican members are doing it themselves.** The "Big Beautiful Bill" — Trump's sweeping legislative package combining tax cut extensions, border security funding, and energy policy — is caught between two GOP factions that want completely opposite things. House conservatives in the Freedom Caucus are demanding spending cuts deep enough to offset the tax provisions. They've put a number on it: trillions in reductions over a decade. Leadership hasn't matched that number. On the other side, moderate Republicans from high-tax blue states like New York, New Jersey, and California are refusing to vote for any bill that doesn't significantly raise the SALT deduction cap — the limit on how much state and local taxes you can deduct from your federal return. That cap hits their constituents hardest. Speaker Mike Johnson has a razor-thin majority. He can lose **no more than three or four votes** on the House floor and still pass anything. Right now, the vote count in both directions puts him well short. The White House has floated July 4th as a deadline to pass the bill and send it to the Senate. Capitol Hill observers, even Republican-friendly ones, are calling that timeline aggressive at best. Here's why this matters to you: the 2017 individual tax cuts — lower rates for most American earners — **expire at the end of 2025 if Congress does nothing.** If this bill stalls past year-end without a fix, your federal tax bill in 2026 goes up automatically. No vote required.