Hegseth Says "Most Intense Day" in Iran — Hours After Trump Said the War Was "Almost Over"

Here's where it gets even more complicated.

The New York Times is reporting that Iran was **"more prepared than the Trump administration anticipated"** — and that the U.S. military has suffered heavy losses that caught planners off guard.

Think about what that means for a moment.

The administration said the war was almost over.

The defense secretary said it's escalating.

The enemy said the U.S. president should fear for his life.

And American military officials are privately telling the Times that the intelligence picture was wrong.

Meanwhile, the Wall Street Journal is reporting something that may be the most important detail of the entire day: **Trump's own advisors have been quietly urging him to find an exit plan** from the Iran war in recent days.

That kind of internal pressure — if confirmed — suggests the conflict is not going as publicly advertised.

And there's an energy dimension to this that hits you directly in the wallet.

Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait, and Iraq have announced a combined oil production cut of **6.7 million barrels per day** — roughly 33% of their total output.

That's a seismic move.

Trump has also threatened to hit Iran "twenty times harder" if Tehran moves to block oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway through which roughly 20% of the world's oil supply passes every single day.

Add up a massive OPEC production cut, active U.S. military strikes in the Middle East, Iranian threats against shipping lanes, and heavy losses on the American side — and you have a picture of an oil market that is extraordinarily fragile right now.

On the domestic front, DOGE released **seven full years of Medicaid spending data** to the public today — 2018 through 2024 — in what Newsmax called a major transparency move.

The release is designed to let ordinary Americans search for potential fraud in the program themselves.

Supporters say it proves the administration's claim that hundreds of billions in improper payments are flowing through federal programs.

Critics note that releasing raw data without context can mislead the public about what constitutes actual fraud versus administrative complexity.

On the legal front, Judge Tanya Chutkan has unsealed a **165-page brief from former Special Counsel Jack Smith** on Trump's 2020 election case.

The document — partially redacted — explores how much of the original indictment can survive the Supreme Court's landmark 2024 immunity ruling.

It's a complex legal picture, but the short version is this: the case is still alive in some form, and today's unsealing gives the public its first real look at what arguments remain viable.

And in a quieter but potentially significant move, Trump nominated **Michael Selig — an SEC crypto task force insider — to chair the Commodity Futures Trading Commission**.

The CFTC is set to become the primary federal regulator of digital assets under Trump's new crypto framework.

Choosing someone from inside the SEC's own crypto infrastructure sends a clear signal about which direction Washington is heading on digital asset rules.

Today was not a slow news day.

A war that was "almost over" just got more intense.

A direct threat was issued against the sitting American president by a foreign official.

U.S. military planners may have gotten the picture badly wrong.

And oil markets are now sitting on a knife's edge.

**This afternoon's briefing covers all of it — in full detail below.**

Browse all past Trump news briefings in the archive