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AM|Morning BriefingSaturday, February 28, 2026 at 10:14 AM10 min read

Trump Just Announced "Major Combat Operations" Against Iran — and Bitcoin Felt It First

Q: What was the TrumpMeter score for Saturday, February 28, 2026?

The TrumpMeter score was 10/10. The US has entered active military combat with Iran for the first time in history — a development with sweeping consequences for global markets, energy prices, and regional stability. Combined with the Jack Smith superseding indictment, DOGE's Medicaid data dump, and new tariff signals, this is one of the most consequential single news cycles in years.

US & Israel launched coordinated strikes on Iranian nuclear/military sites in "Operation Epic Fury." Bitcoin dropped 6% to ~$63K on the news. Markets open Monday.

Chaos Index

10/10

MAXIMUM CHAOS

The US has entered active military combat with Iran for the first time in history — a development with sweeping consequences for global markets, energy prices, and regional stability. Combined with the Jack Smith superseding indictment, DOGE's Medicaid data dump, and new tariff signals, this is one of the most consequential single news cycles in years.

Key Developments

You woke up this Saturday to a world that looks fundamentally different than it did Friday night.

**President Trump announced the start of major US combat operations against Iran** — alongside coordinated Israeli strikes — targeting nuclear and missile sites in Tehran, Isfahan, and beyond.

The operation has been dubbed "Operation Epic Fury" and "Roaring Lion" in early reports.

Explosions were confirmed in Tehran.

Iran launched retaliatory ballistic missiles toward Israel, which were intercepted.

This is not a skirmish. This is not a warning shot.

This is the United States in active combat with Iran — the scenario that foreign policy analysts have debated for decades and that every president since 1979 has, until now, avoided pulling the trigger on.

How did we get here?

The short answer: Iran's nuclear program.

Trump had telegraphed escalating rhetoric toward Tehran for months, and the administration cited what it called an imminent nuclear threat as justification for the strikes.

Stories Driving the News

Brief #1BREAKING▼ BEARISH

10/10

Trump Says 'Major Combat Operations' Have Begun — Iran Fires Back With Ballistic Missiles

The news broke on a Saturday morning, when most Americans were still asleep: **the United States and Israel had launched coordinated preemptive strikes on Iran's nuclear and military sites.** President Trump appeared at the podium to announce what his administration is calling major US combat operations — the first direct US military conflict with Iran in history. The operation, referenced in early reports as 'Operation Epic Fury' and 'Roaring Lion,' targeted military installations and nuclear facilities in Tehran, Isfahan, and other locations across the country [4]. Explosions were confirmed in Tehran. Iran's response came quickly. **Ballistic missiles were launched toward Israel** — and were intercepted, according to reports on X [5]. The strikes appear to have been months in the making, with the Trump administration citing Iran's accelerating nuclear enrichment program as the core justification. Supporters of the action argue the US and Israel had a narrow window to act before Iran crossed the nuclear threshold — and that window was closing fast. Critics argue that striking Iran without a clear exit strategy risks a broader regional war, with Iran's proxy forces — Hezbollah, the Houthis, Iraqi militias — all potentially activating. Here's why this matters to you directly: the Strait of Hormuz, which Iran borders, carries roughly 20% of the world's oil supply. **Any Iranian move to block or threaten that waterway could send gas prices surging within days** — and everything from airline tickets to grocery delivery runs on fuel. Monday's market open will be the first major test of how global investors are pricing this new reality.

[1][2][3]

Brief #2ECONOMY▼ BEARISH

8/10

Bitcoin Dropped $4,000 in Hours — and It's Not About Crypto

Here's a number that tells the whole story of Saturday morning: **Bitcoin fell roughly 6%, dropping to around $63,000**, within hours of news breaking that the US and Israel had struck Iran [8]. That's not a crypto story. That's a geopolitical story wearing a crypto headline. Because stock markets are closed on weekends, Bitcoin and other digital assets have become the world's real-time fear gauge — a 24/7 pressure valve that moves when nothing else can [8]. When fear spikes on a Saturday, you can't sell the S&P 500. You can sell Bitcoin. And investors did, rapidly. **Bitcoin had already pulled back significantly from its October 2025 all-time high of around $126,000** — and today's geopolitical shock accelerated that decline [8]. The broader crypto market followed Bitcoin downward, with risk-off selling hitting assets across the board. This matters beyond crypto. Monday morning, when US equity markets open, traders will be pricing in the same fear that Bitcoin already absorbed over the weekend. Oil futures, defense stocks, airline shares, and consumer goods companies with overseas supply chains are all expected to see significant movement. **Here's why this matters to you:** if you have a 401(k), a brokerage account, or even a savings account tied to market-linked products, Monday's open could look very different from Friday's close. The standard advice — don't panic-sell — applies, but you should understand exactly what's driving the volatility before you make any moves.

[1][2][3]

Brief #3LEGAL◆ MIXED

7/10

Jack Smith's Superseding Indictment Just Quietly Landed — Here's What Changed

On any other news day, this would be the top story in the country. **Judge Tanya Chutkan unsealed a 165-page brief from Special Counsel Jack Smith**, laying out a revised — or superseding — indictment against Donald Trump in the 2020 election case [35]. The key change: the revised indictment narrows its focus, removing Trump's conversations with the Department of Justice from the core charges [32]. Why? Because the Supreme Court ruled last year that presidents have presumptive immunity for official acts — and conversations with the DOJ are considered official. **Smith is threading a needle**, keeping the most powerful charges intact while surgically removing the pieces a court might throw out based on the immunity ruling [32]. Trump's allies framed it differently. As one post on X put it, this is Trump facing new political 'persecution' as the DOJ moves forward [36]. Others on X applauded the move, with one user writing that Smith 'removed Trump's conversations with the DOJ to comply with the Supreme Court ruling' and called the superseding indictment appropriate [37]. The 60-day election rule — which bars DOJ from taking major steps within 60 days of an election — does not apply here, as the midterms are still months away [33]. **Here's why this matters to you:** this case is the one most legal experts say has the strongest surviving charges after the immunity ruling. If it proceeds to trial, it would be the first criminal trial of a sitting or former US president on charges related to an attempt to overturn an election — a moment with no precedent in American history.

[1][2]

Brief #4POLICY◆ MIXED

6/10

DOGE Just Dumped 7 Years of Medicaid Records Online — Now It's Your Problem to Find the Fraud

Elon Musk's Department of Government Efficiency took an unusual step this week: **it released seven full years of Medicaid spending data — 2018 through 2024 — directly to the public** [27]. The message was blunt. Here's the data. Find the fraud yourself. The move is part of a broader administration strategy to build public support for potential Medicaid cuts by making the case that the program is riddled with improper payments. Musk has claimed the federal government may be losing up to **$1 trillion per year to waste and fraud** across all programs [23]. NEWSMAX reported the release as a transparency move, with the administration allowing Americans to search the data themselves for suspicious payments [21]. Critics argue the data dump is a setup — releasing raw numbers without context to manufacture outrage that will be used to justify cuts to a program serving over 90 million Americans. Supporters say sunlight is the best disinfectant, and that if the fraud is as widespread as DOGE claims, the public deserves to see it. A post from one user on X noted that 'rooting out waste, fraud, and abuse in government spending is something many Americans want to see' — but added that bipartisan cooperation would be needed to make any resulting legislation effective [22]. **Here's why this matters to you:** Medicaid is the largest health insurance program in the United States. If the data is used to justify significant benefit reductions, tens of millions of low-income Americans, elderly nursing home residents, and people with disabilities could see their coverage cut — and the political fight over what comes next will be one of the defining battles of the 2026 midterms.

[1][2]

Brief #5ECONOMY◆ MIXED

5/10

Trump's CFTC Pick Has One Foot in the SEC and One in Crypto — Markets Are Reading the Signs

In a move that sent quiet ripples through the crypto world, **Trump tapped Michael Selig — an SEC crypto-task-force insider — to chair the Commodity Futures Trading Commission** [65]. The CFTC is the regulator that oversees commodities and derivatives markets — and under Trump's proposed digital asset framework, it would become the primary regulator for most cryptocurrencies, shifting power away from the SEC. Selig's background inside the SEC's own crypto task force makes him an unusual pick — someone who knows exactly how the rival agency thinks and where its weaknesses are. The SEC and CFTC are simultaneously conducting what's being called a joint 'crypto sprint' — a fast-track review aimed at building out the US regulatory framework for digital assets [Sarah Kunin on X]. **The goal, according to White House materials, is to make the US the 'crypto capital of the world'** [NewsHubDigital on X]. Phase one of the sprint covers spot Bitcoin and crypto trading under federal oversight. Phase two addresses leverage and retail investor protections [vastiqfw on X]. For context: today's Iran-driven Bitcoin drop to ~$63,000 is a reminder that crypto remains highly volatile and geopolitically sensitive — even as Washington works to build a formal regulatory structure around it. **Here's why this matters to you:** if you hold any crypto — Bitcoin, Ethereum, anything — the regulatory framework being built right now will determine how it's taxed, how it's traded, and how protected you are if an exchange collapses. The rules being written in Washington this year will shape the digital asset market for the next decade.

[1][2]

Brief #6ECONOMY◆ MIXED

5/10

Tariffs at 10% — and Trump Just Floated a 15% Hike via Truth Social

The 10% global tariff rate that President Trump ordered via executive action officially took effect on February 24, 2026 [19]. But it may not stay at 10% for long. **Trump posted on Truth Social over the weekend signaling a hike to 15%** — though as of Saturday, no formal directive had been issued and the White House confirmed they're 'working on it separately' [19]. Critics in Congress moved quickly. Rep. Greg Stanton posted that 'Trump's inflation and illegal tariffs have increased costs for game day party staples like chicken wings, veggie trays, nachos, and beer' [55]. Supporters pushed back, arguing that Biden-era money printing and energy policies drove the core inflation consumers feel at grocery stores — and that Trump's lower gas prices offset tariff costs [GreenMauna on X]. The economic reality, as most mainstream economists see it, is somewhere in the middle: **tariffs function as a tax paid by importers, which is typically passed on to consumers** — but how much depends on whether foreign exporters absorb some of the cost to stay competitive. With the Iran strikes now adding an oil price shock to the equation, the inflationary picture heading into spring 2026 is more complicated than it was 48 hours ago. **Here's why this matters to you:** a potential jump from 10% to 15% on global imports — combined with an oil price spike from Middle East conflict — could hit your grocery bill, your gas pump, and your utility bills simultaneously. Watch for a formal White House directive in the coming days. That's the moment the 15% figure becomes real.

[1][2]

Trump Just Announced "Major Combat Operations" Against Iran — and Bitcoin Felt It First

Key Developments

Stories Driving the News

Trump Says 'Major Combat Operations' Have Begun — Iran Fires Back With Ballistic Missiles

Bitcoin Dropped $4,000 in Hours — and It's Not About Crypto

Jack Smith's Superseding Indictment Just Quietly Landed — Here's What Changed

DOGE Just Dumped 7 Years of Medicaid Records Online — Now It's Your Problem to Find the Fraud

Trump's CFTC Pick Has One Foot in the SEC and One in Crypto — Markets Are Reading the Signs

Tariffs at 10% — and Trump Just Floated a 15% Hike via Truth Social

Sources

Frequently Asked Questions

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